|Bank Canadian Dollar Currency Forecast||2018 US dollar and Canadian dollar Forecast Q3||2018 US dollar and Canadian dollar Forecast Q4|
|Scotia Bank Forecast||1.26||1.25|
|RBC Bank Forecast||1.24||1.22|
|BMO Bank Forecast||1.26||1.25|
|CIBC Bank Forecast||1.32||1.31|
|TD Bank Forecast||1.28||1.27|
|National Bank Forecast||1.23||1.21|
Please check with each bank to ensure the forecast is up to date and correct. Please note, forecasts and predictions may not come true! For a more in-depth look at some of the factors behind the forecast, please read our monthly outlook. If you’re looking for the Canadian dollar forecast for tomorrow, next week, or next month, visit our blog or refer to the table above.
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The Canadian dollar has gone on a wild ride in 2015 and so far in 2016. Broad based US dollar strength has the US dollar surging vs. a broad basket of currencies including the Canadian dollar. So far in 2016, the Canadian dollar has lost a lot of value. Some of the biggest drivers that will continue to impact the Canadian dollar in 2016 will be the declining oil prices, Bank of Canada policy and rate cut, US FED leaning towards raising interest rates, and economic divergence between Canada and the USA.
The days of the Canadian dollar at parity with the US dollar are long gone. The Canadian dollar has been fluctuating over the last several years. It has been above parity, below parity, back above parity, and now below parity.
The Canadian dollar is correlated to a few things. Namely, oil prices, commodities, the stock market, global growth. These correlations change over time.
Oil prices and the Canadian dollar often move together. Not all the time. The Canadian dollar is often called a petrocurrency because of all the oil Canada has in its reserves. Moreover, the price of the Canadian dollar also moves in tandem to oil prices in some cases. A few years ago, the world was crying about there being not enough oil and that is why prices were very high, there seemed to be a growing demand for oil and not enough supply. As a result, the Canadian economy was strong and oil prices were strong. The Canadian dollar was doing well as a result. All of a sudden, oil prices fell sharply, largely due to excess supply. When oil prices started to fall, the Canadian dollar started to fall, and the falling oil prices has now impacted the Canadian economy and the Canadian job market. This is one of the main reasons why the Canadian dollar is low at the moment in 2016.
Oil prices in North America have dropped from an average of $100 a barrel in the summer of 2014 to around $31 as of January 22, 2016. The diminishing price of oil while attributed to a number of different political and economic factors is primarily stemmed from an oversupply of oil production by the OPEC nations and other so called petrostates. For more information on how the oil prices and the Canadian dollar, please consult our article on the impact of low oil prices on the Canadian dollar.
Commodity prices, similar to oil prices, often move in tandem with the Canadian dollar. The Canadian stock market has a lot of companies that are invested in commodities and oil, and therefore the TSX and the Canadian dollar can often move in the same direction because of the natural reserves in commodities and oil that Canada has.
Global growth and China often fuels demand for raw materials and commodities and oil and as we discussed earlier, this moves in tandem with the Canadian dollar.
The Bank of Canada has an impact on the Canadian dollar. If interest rates are low, then sometimes the Canadian dollar will be weak as a result. Moreover, with the US Federal Reserve, looking to raise interest rates in the USA, the US dollar is getting stronger as a result.
If you need to buy or sell US dollars, then you may want to know the forecast for the Canadian dollar. The problem is that there are so many forecasts out there and anyone can produce a forecast. The other problem is that so many of the people that produce a forecast are not always right. Moreover, even experts that produce a Canadian dollar forecast are wrong so many times. Many experts are wrong and revise their projections after the currency has moved.
All of the Canadian banks have a Canadian dollar forecast and also a US dollar forecast. Just because the banks produce a Canadian dollar forecast, this does not mean it is going to be right.
You can get the Canadian dollar forecast for the banks often straight from their websites. If you’re wondering how the Canadian projects to the Euro, have a look at our CAD to Euro forecast.