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Canadian Dollar Update, April 1, 2020 – Canadian Dollar starts Q2 on back-foot

USD/CAD Open: 1.4248-52, Overnight Range: 1.4058-1.4271

Oil is at $20.33 and gold is at $1,593.90. US markets are lower today.

For today, USD resistance is at 1.4328. Support is at 1.3982.

• Canadian dollar swamped by renewed US dollar demand vs the major currencies
• President Trump warns of a sharp spike in COVID-19 deaths in next two weeks
• Low oil prices continue to undermine Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar was on its back-foot for the entire overnight session, giving back nearly all of yesterday’s post-11:00 am fixing gains. It has been a wild twenty-four hours. The steep losses in the major US equity indexes in March, sparked large-scale US dollar buying, as portfolio managers rebalanced their books. USDCAD climbed steadily, rising from 1.4165 to 1.4340 by 11:00 am EDT (That time equates to the 4:00 London fixing time when benchmark FX rates are posted). Prices plunged immediately afterwards, finally finding a bottom at 1.4015, just before the session closed.

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Asia traders were not impressed with Wall Street’s quarter-end performance. The major US equity indexes closed with losses led by a 1.84% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Asia equity traders followed the American lead and their major indexes started Q2 with hefty losses, led by a 4.5% drop in Japan’s Nikkei 225 index.

The US dollar was in demand in Asia, which knocked AUDUSD and NZDUSD lower. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes did not have any impact on trading but did note that officials expect a sharp economic rebound when the coronavirus is contained.

Europe is in the throes of the COVID-19 crisis, with France, Spain, Russia, and the UK recording their highest daily death totals, yesterday. Global deaths are estimated to be 42,300. The impact of the virus was reflected in German, UK and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data.

The Canadian dollar and other FX markets are reeling from a severe drop in liquidity.

The major banks have chopped risk limits as many desks are understaffed, while trading losses from equity and bond market moves has curtailed FX risk from fund managers. Aggressive intraday program trading has exacerbated FX volatility.

Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.4150 – 1.4250

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By KBFX | April 1, 2020 | Daily Update | 0 comments