Canadian Dollar Update August 20, 2019 – Canadian Dollar flirting with support
USD/CAD Open: 1.3323-1.3324 Overnight Range: 1.3308-1.3346
Oil is at $55.52 and gold is at $1,515. US markets are lower today.
The short-term USD/CAD technicals are neutral-bearish. For today, USD resistance is at 1.3359. Support is at 1.3294.
The Canadian dollar came under selling pressure yesterday and never recovered. Prices closed at the session low, consolidated in Asia and European markets overnight and opened unchanged in Toronto, today. Once again, the Canadian dollar was a victim of broad-based US dollar demand. Reports that the Trump administration is considering some fiscal stimulus in the form of a payroll tax cut boosted the greenback. That led to US dollar demand across the G-10 currency spectrum. The greenback held on to its gains despite White House officials denying that they were planning new stimulus action.
If Mr. Trump had his way, he would inject some stimulus into the US market by cutting rates and weakening the US dollar. Yesterday, he tweeted: “Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to “will” the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election. Very Selfish! Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world… The Fed Rate, over a relatively short period, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!”
The tweet wasn’t anything he hadn’t said before, but it still provided the greenback with a modicum of support.
GBPUSD was center stage in Europe. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson released a letter outlining his reasons why the Irish border backstop agreement should be ripped up and renegotiated. The EU is on record for not being interested in reopening that part of the agreement. Johnson’s action brought “no-deal” Brexit to the forefront and GBPUSD from 1.2135 to 1.2070.
EURUSD traded with a negative bias in a narrow 1.1072-1.1087 range. The single currency is under pressure because of Italian political risk and the talk of US fiscal stimulus. The short term technicals are bearish with a decisive break of 1.1060, suggesting further losses to 1.0850.
USDJPY retreated from yesterday’s peak of 106.66 and dropped to 106.32 in early Toronto trading. Sellers emerged when US Treasury yields dropped from their overnight peak.
AUDUSD managed to grind higher after the Reserve Bank of Australian minutes from the August 6 meeting suggested domestic interest rates would remain unchanged for the next few months. The RBA wants more time to assess the impact of its two previous rate cuts.
Canadian dollar traders are awaiting today’s Manufacturing shipments data for June. They are forecast to fall 1.7% due to weaker auto shipments. A worse than expected result would drive the Canadian dollar lower. There isn’t any US data of note.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3280 – 1.3380