Canadian Dollar Update January 23, 2020 – Canadian Dollar crushed by BoC flip-flop
USD/CAD Open: 1.3135-1.3136, Overnight Range: 1.3126-1.3171
Oil is at $54.95 and gold is at $1,560.20. US markets are lower today.
The short-term USD/CAD technicals are neutral-bearish. For today, USD resistance is at 1.3186. Support is at 1.3111.
The Canadian dollar was crushed by another Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy flip-flop. BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz, had set markets up to expect a neutral monetary policy statement on January 22. The December statement bragged about the accuracy of their October global economic growth projections. It said that there was nascent evidence the global economy was stabilizing, while projecting higher growth over the next two years. They did say that ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainty were weighing on global activity, describing it as the biggest source of risk to their outlook.
That risk disappeared on January 15 when Chinese officials met in Washington to sign the Phase 1 trade agreement. Therefore, it was easy to assume the BoC would deliver a somewhat neutral policy outlook. Unfortunately, the adage about why you should never assume anything proved accurate.
The Bank of Canada issued an unequivocally dovish statement. They are now concerned about a high degree of uncertainty around trade and rising geopolitical factors. Instead “Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast. In assessing incoming data, the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.”
The Australian dollar was the best performing major G-10 currency overnight. AUDUSD rallied, rising from 0.68400 to 0.6877 after Australian employment data surprised to the upside. Australia gained 28,900 new jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.2%. The news alleviated some of the pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates. The New Zealand dollar was largely ignored and opened in Toronto unchanged from yesterday’s closing level.
USDJPY fell because of renewed safe-haven demand for yen because of the Wuhan coronavirus. Also, another drop in US Treasury yields and a drift lower in equity prices contributed to the sell-off.
GBPUSD managed to hang on to this week’s gains following data that suggested the Bank of England may not need to trim its benchmark interest rate. Rate cut fever had risen following comments from many BoE officials warning of the need to stimulate economic growth.
There are not any notable economic reports from the US or Canada today suggesting more FX consolidation is in the cards.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3090 – 1.3190
Click Here to Subscribe