Canadian Dollar Update January 8, 2020 – Canadian Dollar stays on even keel
USD/CAD Open: 1.3002-1.3003, Overnight Range: 1.2976-1.3043
Oil is at $61.10 and gold is at $1,569.50. US markets are higher today.
The short-term USD/CAD technicals are neutral-bullish. For today, USD resistance is at 1.3076. Support is at 1.2989.
The Canadian stayed on an even keel despite volatile FX price action overnight. US-Iran tensions sent Asia traders scurrying for safe-haven assets. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen soared as did gold, bond, and oil prices. Asia equity indices sank.
USDJPY plunged to 107.66 from 108.46 while US 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 1.82% to 1.74%. Those moves reversed as quickly as they occurred. Within an hour, USDJPY was back to 108.45 and then continued to climb steadily, reaching 108.80 in early Toronto trading. The 10-year Treasury yields rebounded as well and are trading at 1.82%. President Trump’s calm tweet fueled the unwind of safe-haven trades.
The New Zealand dollar outperformed its Australian counterpart overnight. Both currency pairs sank on the Iran news, but NZDUSD rallied more aggressively than AUDUSD. That was due, in part to divergent central bank monetary policy outlooks. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand appears to be on hold, with a neutral bias while the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a dovish outlook.
European traders preferred to focus on domestic economic data while waiting for President Trump’s statement today. EURUSD data was mostly soft as German Factory orders fell 6.5% y/y in November and Eurozone Confidence and Sentiment indicators were weak. EURUSD declined steadily, dropping from 1.1153 to 1.1114 in Toronto, with prices undermined by bearish technicals.
Sterling was a big mover, again. GBPUSD traders are already skittish due to Brexit and concerns about UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s approach to negotiations now that he leads a majority government. GBPUSD sentiment was negative after prices failed to extend gains above resistance at 1.3330 and the subsequent drop below 1.3180.
The bullish Canadian dollar outlook is supported by the FOMC’s forecast for unchanged interest rates in 2020 and by the rise in WTI oil prices. Canadian dollar bears point to the risk of weakening economic data and long term bearish Canadian dollar technicals.
There are not any economic reports of note due today.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.2950 – 1.3050