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Canadian Dollar Update, June 30, 2020 – Canadian Dollar awaiting GDP data

USD/CAD Open: 1.3695-99, Overnight Range: 1.3649-1.3699

WTI Oil is at $39.22 and gold is at $1,786.70. US markets are mixed today.

For today, USD resistance is at 1.3708. Support is at 1.3637.

Canada April GDP expected to fall 13% m/m
• GBPUSD sinking due to weak data and government spending concerns
• Fed’s Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testify before Congress today

Statistics Canada releases GDP data for April today. It is expected to be ugly. Canada’s economic growth is expected to shrink 13%, m/m, thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic. The news shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. Arguably, the Canadian dollar may suffer more from a weaker result than it would gain from a better print. Domestic data has not been much of a factor in determining Canadian dollar direction since the pandemic. The key driver is the outlook for the global economy in a post-coronavirus world, and renewed COVID-19 outbreaks are causing concerns.

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Those concerns will be readily evident today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin testify before the US House of Representatives. The text of Mr. Powell’s opening remarks was released yesterday. His positive comment that “the economy entered an important new phase, sooner than expected,” was offset by his concerns about the issues and challenges to a sustained recovery.

Asia opened with an upbeat tone. The Nikkei 225 rallied, which lifted Asia equity indexes. However, the trend did not continue in Europe. The major indexes are trading mixed with the UK FTSE 100 in the red, while the German Dax is modestly higher. S&P 500 futures are flat while US Treasury yields recouped overnight losses. Gold prices (XAUUSD) are trading at the bottom of their overnight range, but the uptrend remains intact.

USDJPY is trading at the top of its overnight 107.55-107.79 range. Most of the gains due to month-end and quarter-end demand for dollars.

AUDUSD and NZDUSD enjoyed a brief rally from better than expected China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI data. The reports send positive signals for the domestic economy, which appears to have put the worst of the pandemic behind. The rally was short-lived, and prices dropped in Europe.

EURUSD traded in with a negative bias in a 1.1194-1.1251 band with traders ignoring the higher than expected Eurozone inflation data. Portfolio rebalancing flows undermined prices ahead of today’s Powell testimony.

The UK economy contracted by 2.2% in Q1 2020 q/q and the news undermined GBPUSD. Traders were also unhappy with the UK government’s planned £5 billion infrastructure spending program due to the country’s 105% debt to GDP ratio. GBPUSD sank to 1.2260 from 1.2316, with quarter-end flows weighing on prices.

Happy Canada Day tomorrow.

The Knightsbridge FX daily FX report will not be published on Canada Day.

Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3645 – 1.3745

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By KBFX | June 30, 2020 | Daily Update | 0 comments