Canadian Dollar Update – Canadian dollar drifting

• Trump’s tariffs go into effect today
• Putin/Trump meeting may happen in next few days
• US dollar sliding on improved risk sentiment

USDCAD open 1.3733, overnight range 1.3722-1.3747, close 1.3741, WTI 64.88, Gold 3376.66

The Canadian dollar drifted higher on the back of broad-based US dollar weakness after report surfaced that Trump and Putin may be meeting somewhere in Europe, in the next few days. Traders are hoping the meeting will lead to a ceasefire in the Russia and Ukraine war.

WTI crude drifted lower within a 64.13–65.11 range, pressured by Saudi Arabia’s agreement to ramp up output following Trump’s request and ongoing weakness in the US dollar. A clean break below the 63.40 support level would open the door to a move toward 60.00.

President Trump delivered on his threat to implement tariffs starting today, with Canada, India, and Switzerland taking the biggest hits. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter made a last-ditch trip to Washington in hopes of a face-to-face with Trump but was snubbed. An Indian official called the new measures “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.”

Equity markets in Asia closed higher, with Japan’s Topix adding 0.72%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 0.68%. Australia’s ASX 200 finished flat. European stocks are in rally mode on renewed hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Germany’s Dax is up 1.61%, while the French CAC-40 has gained 1.22%. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 is down 0.71% ahead of today’s Bank of England rate decision. S&P 500 futures are climbing, up 0.65%, buoyed by news that Apple plans to invest $100 billion domestically to sidestep semiconductor tariffs. The US 10-year yield sits at 4.22%.

EURUSD traded in a 1.1650–1.1698 range and is sitting at 1.1666 in New York. Optimism around the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting is supporting the euro despite a 1.9% monthly decline in German industrial output and revisions that lowered the previous month’s data. The technical outlook suggests further gains toward 1.1770 while prices remain above 1.1600.

GBPUSD ranged between 1.3446 and 1.3380 and is leaning higher ahead of the Bank of England policy announcement. A 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected, although a split vote is likely, with some members favoring no change and at least one pushing for a more aggressive move.

USDJPY moved between 146.69 and 147.71, supported by a widening spread between US and Japanese 10-year bond yields. However, improved risk appetite led to some dollar selling that limited upside momentum. Market sentiment was further lifted by upbeat Chinese trade figures.

AUDUSD climbed within a 0.6496–0.6542 band, extending gains from the previous session. A larger-than-expected Australian trade surplus of $5.36 billion and strong Chinese export data helped underpin the rally.

Today’s data includes Canada’s Ivey PMI (forecast 55.2, previous 53.2) and US weekly jobless claims (forecast 221,000 vs last week 218,000).