Economic Outlook and Summary June closed with the Iran ceasefire holding, but it has done little to deliver the “return to normal” promised in the headlines. The February 28 outbreak of hostilities gave way to a formal peace declaration and signing ceremony in Switzerland, restoring the pre-war framework on paper. The Strait of Hormuz reopened […]
May Recap: Ceasefire Rumours and a Stubborn Fed May was the month the Strait of Hormuz dominated every asset class, every headline, and every trading desk. The Iran war that began with Operation Epic Fury in late February entered its third month with no resolution in sight, and markets spent the better part of May […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Oil and gold prices surged, 10-year government bond yields climbed, and the US dollar rallied across the board due to safe-haven demand. The S&P 500 dropped from 6878.88 at the February close to 6528.52 at the end of March. The Middle East conflict was another reason for central bank decisions to […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Oil and gold prices surged, 10-year government bond yields climbed, and the US dollar rallied across the board due to safe-haven demand. The S&P 500 dropped from 6878.88 at the February close to 6528.52 at the end of March. The Middle East conflict was another reason for central bank decisions to […]
Economic Outlook and Summary February delivered the geopolitical shock markets had been quietly dreading. In the final hours of the month, the United States and Israel launched “Operation Epic Fury,” a large-scale coordinated air campaign against Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous top IRGC commanders. Iran retaliated with drone and missile […]
Economic Outlook and Summary December delivered its usual mix of end-of-year central bank meetings to a shrinking pool of interested observers, as many traders and desks had closed their books for the year. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged and indicated rates would remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. Across the English Channel, the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary September brought the first Fed rate cut in 2025, which led to analysts and economists re-evaluating the forecasts for US interest rates for the next six quarters. However, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England did not follow the Fed’s lead and left their benchmark rates unchanged. President Trump […]
Economic Outlook and Summary June turned out to be more bark than bite. Markets braced for tariff fallout, Fed pivot signals, and a growth scare—but what they got was a sideways drift and more questions than answers. Trump’s April tariff barrage still casts a long shadow, but foreign retaliation has been conspicuously restrained—so far. Gold, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May turned out to be more bark than bite. Markets braced for tariff fallout, Fed pivot signals, and a growth scare—but what they got was a sideways drift and more questions than answers. Trump’s April tariff barrage still casts a long shadow, but foreign retaliation has been conspicuously restrained—so far. Gold, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April delivered another body blow to global markets. President Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from 60 countries caught many off guard, even those accustomed to his unpredictability. The move erased any lingering optimism for a soft landing and raised fresh concerns about global trade stability. The […]
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