Canadian Dollar Update – Canadian dollar steady

• French government falls: Japan elects new LDP Leader
• Opec hikes production less than expected
• US dollar rallies on geopolitical risk

USDCAD open 1.3955, overnight range 1.3942-1.3968, close, 1.3951, WTI 62.01, Gold 3942.51

The Canadian dollar dropped, traded quietly overnight and remained inside Friday’s trading band.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly meeting with Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

WTI oil prices gapped higher from Friday’s 60.69 close and traded in a 61.36-62.11 range before easing back to 61.71 in NY. Opec surprised markets by announcing a 137,000 barrel/day increase for November, which was identical to Octobers increase and well below the rumoured hike of up to 500.000 bpd. Gains were capped by concerns of a near-term oil glut.

France’s government collapsed within hours of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu unveiling his cabinet, making him the fifth person to hold the job since President Macron’s ill-fated snap election in June 2024.

Asian equities were mixed. Political excitement in Japan sparked a surge that lifted the Topix 3.10 percent and the Nikkei 4.75 percent, while Australia’s ASX 200 was little changed during its Labour Day-thinned session.

As of 7:30 am EDT, European stocks were mixed — the FTSE 100 up 0.13 percent, the DAX up 0.24 percent, and France’s CAC-40 down 1.24 percent. S&P 500 futures gained 0.31 percent as the U.S. Dollar Index jumped from 97.70 to 98.37. Gold spiked to 3949.58 before easing to 3936.84, and the 10-year Treasury yield hovered at 4.155 percent.

EURUSD fell from 1.1744 to 1.1652 before stabilizing near 1.1656 in early New York. France’s political turmoil sent OAT yields higher and equities lower. Weaker Eurozone retail-sales data (1 percent y/y vs 2.1 percent prior) further soured sentiment. Intraday tone is bearish below 1.1680 with potential toward 1.1575.

GBPUSD traded between 1.3419 and 1.3465 as broad U.S. dollar strength dominated amid global political unease and the continuing government shutdown. Sterling’s topside remains capped by the OBR’s downgrade to productivity forecasts and expectations of higher U.K. taxes.

USDJPY jumped from 149.04 to 150.47 after Sanae Takaichi’s election as LDP leader and presumptive prime minister. Her pro-stimulus, low-rate stance pushed Japanese equities to record highs.

AUDUSD consolidated in a 0.6584–0.6619 range, mirroring Friday’s action. The currency stays supported by the RBA’s mildly hawkish tone and steady commodity prices

There are no US or Canadian data releases today.