Economic Outlook and Summary Trump’s rhetoric took center stage. His determination to slap tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China while promising reciprocal tariffs on all countries exporting to America sparked fresh worries about trade disruptions and recessions. The U.S. Dollar Index chopped its way through February, caught between rising inflation fears and shifting Fed rate […]
Economic Outlook and Summary As the month progressed, Trump’s tariff threat level ratcheted higher and then came to a head on January 20, just after he was sworn in as the 47th President. He mused that he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China. Those musings became […]
Economic Outlook and Summary October was the opposite of September. Where September was mostly a “risk-on” month thanks to Powell’s dovish comments at the end of August, October was full-bore risk off. A somewhat hawkish Fed rate cut and the run-up to the US election saw a broad-based shift into long US dollar positions and […]
Economic Outlook and Summary September was mostly a “risk-on” month thanks to Powell’s dovish comments at the end of August. His remarks propelled the US 10-year Treasury yield to 3.60% from just above 4.0% in August. The FOMC disappointed about half of the market when they only cut interest rates by 25 bps. Even so, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary August is traditionally a quiet month for markets, with many traders and analysts taking summer vacations. Thin holiday markets led to some sharp moves, particularly early in the month when fears of a hard landing for the US economy stirred things up. These concerns kept the US dollar index steady as […]
Economic Outlook and Summary July had a lot going on. Markets survived the French and UK elections, while escalating US election politics and Middle East tensions made traders very nervous. The fallout from President Joe Biden’s June 28 debate with Donald Trump reverberated for most of the month, causing Democrat hopes for re-election to plunge. […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Will they? Won’t they? And what will they say? That sums up the global market’s fixation on the US inflation outlook and Fed monetary policy in June and likely for July. S&P 500 traders did not appear to have many concerns as they bought the index steadily and it finished the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May was all about the Fed’s interest rate outlook—”Will they or won’t they” after the May 1 FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Powell maintained that rate decisions would be data-dependent but added that he thought the next move would be a rate cut. Fed officials played a large role in setting market […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April showers were plentiful, but so was top-tier data, which was crucial to the May 1 FOMC interest rate decision. The Fed was expected to cut rates three times in 2024, but the odds for such moves had been slowly deteriorating. Part of the reason was that Fed Chair Jerome Powell […]
Economic Outlook and Summary March came in like a bear and went out like a bull, at least that’s how the US dollar index (DXY) acted. Wall Street equities were choppy but directionless until the middle of the month when they rallied with the S&P 500 finishing with a 2.28% gain. Gold prices climbed steadily […]
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