Economic Outlook and Summary Will they? Won’t they? And what will they say? That sums up the global market’s fixation on the US inflation outlook and Fed monetary policy in June and likely for July. S&P 500 traders did not appear to have many concerns as they bought the index steadily and it finished the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May was all about the Fed’s interest rate outlook—”Will they or won’t they” after the May 1 FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Powell maintained that rate decisions would be data-dependent but added that he thought the next move would be a rate cut. Fed officials played a large role in setting market […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April showers were plentiful, but so was top-tier data, which was crucial to the May 1 FOMC interest rate decision. The Fed was expected to cut rates three times in 2024, but the odds for such moves had been slowly deteriorating. Part of the reason was that Fed Chair Jerome Powell […]
Economic Outlook and Summary March came in like a bear and went out like a bull, at least that’s how the US dollar index (DXY) acted. Wall Street equities were choppy but directionless until the middle of the month when they rallied with the S&P 500 finishing with a 2.28% gain. Gold prices climbed steadily […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The first half of February saw broad-based US dollar demand. A robust nonfarm payrolls report underscored the resilience of the US economy and justified the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. Those results put the spotlight on upcoming inflation data, which was also hotter than expected. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary January was a very choppy month. Equity traders embraced the notion of sharply lower US interest rates in 2024 and drove the S&P 500 index to a record high. The idea of 150 bps in easing before the end of the year had equity bulls salivating. They weren’t deterred by a […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The Federal Open Market Committee donned Santa Claus suits in December and left investors grinning from ear to ear. The risk sentiment bellwether S&P 500 index closed the year with a 24.2% gain, a notable achievement but it paled against the Nasdaq’s 53.8% rally in 2023. The catalyst was the December […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November was a good month for equities and bond bulls, but not so much for the US dollar. The greenback traded steadily until the middle of the month, then fell after US inflation data was sharply weaker than expected. Those results were followed by various Fed officials pushing back against the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary October markets were erratic, and fittingly, that’s how they finished the month. The US dollar index (DXY) consolidated the gains from August and September in a choppy 105.11-107.05 range. The S&P 500 was down 5.0% at one point but managed to claw back many of those losses, yet still finished down […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Global markets were feeling frisky in the first half of September as Chinese authorities made another attempt at stimulating economic growth by cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) for all banks by 0.25%. This news was followed by higher than expected industrial production and retail sales. The European Central Bank delivered […]
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