Economic Outlook and Summary June turned out to be more bark than bite. Markets braced for tariff fallout, Fed pivot signals, and a growth scare—but what they got was a sideways drift and more questions than answers. Trump’s April tariff barrage still casts a long shadow, but foreign retaliation has been conspicuously restrained—so far. Gold, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May turned out to be more bark than bite. Markets braced for tariff fallout, Fed pivot signals, and a growth scare—but what they got was a sideways drift and more questions than answers. Trump’s April tariff barrage still casts a long shadow, but foreign retaliation has been conspicuously restrained—so far. Gold, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April delivered another body blow to global markets. President Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from 60 countries caught many off guard, even those accustomed to his unpredictability. The move erased any lingering optimism for a soft landing and raised fresh concerns about global trade stability. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Trump’s trade tirade scorched the earth in March—his tariffs sparked retaliatory threats from China, a diplomatic cold front with Mexico, and Canada. Trump nailed Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on March 4, and he promised to add auto tariffs on April 2, which he called “Liberation Day.” His remarks fueled […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Trump’s rhetoric took center stage. His determination to slap tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China while promising reciprocal tariffs on all countries exporting to America sparked fresh worries about trade disruptions and recessions. The U.S. Dollar Index chopped its way through February, caught between rising inflation fears and shifting Fed rate […]
Economic Outlook and Summary As the month progressed, Trump’s tariff threat level ratcheted higher and then came to a head on January 20, just after he was sworn in as the 47th President. He mused that he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China. Those musings became […]
Economic Outlook and Summary October was the opposite of September. Where September was mostly a “risk-on” month thanks to Powell’s dovish comments at the end of August, October was full-bore risk off. A somewhat hawkish Fed rate cut and the run-up to the US election saw a broad-based shift into long US dollar positions and […]
Economic Outlook and Summary September was mostly a “risk-on” month thanks to Powell’s dovish comments at the end of August. His remarks propelled the US 10-year Treasury yield to 3.60% from just above 4.0% in August. The FOMC disappointed about half of the market when they only cut interest rates by 25 bps. Even so, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary August is traditionally a quiet month for markets, with many traders and analysts taking summer vacations. Thin holiday markets led to some sharp moves, particularly early in the month when fears of a hard landing for the US economy stirred things up. These concerns kept the US dollar index steady as […]
Economic Outlook and Summary July had a lot going on. Markets survived the French and UK elections, while escalating US election politics and Middle East tensions made traders very nervous. The fallout from President Joe Biden’s June 28 debate with Donald Trump reverberated for most of the month, causing Democrat hopes for re-election to plunge. […]
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