Economic Outlook and Summary December delivered its usual mix of end-of-year central bank meetings to a shrinking pool of interested observers, as many traders and desks had closed their books for the year. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged and indicated rates would remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. Across the English Channel, the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November was a month for the ages. Traders were left in the dark due to the US government shutdown that delayed or cancelled scheduled economic reports, and the government did not reopen until November 12. The odds for the Fed to leave rates unchanged or cut them by 25 bps were […]
Economic Outlook and Summary October began with the US government shutting down and as of November 5, the situation has not changed. FX and equity markets exhibited heightened volatility due to US corporate quarterly earnings reports and the run-up to the highly anticipated President Trump and Xi Jinping meeting in Busan, South Korea. The meeting […]
Economic Outlook and Summary September brought the first Fed rate cut in 2025, which led to analysts and economists re-evaluating the forecasts for US interest rates for the next six quarters. However, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England did not follow the Fed’s lead and left their benchmark rates unchanged. President Trump […]
Economic Outlook and Summary August trading was choppy, and thin as summer holidays drained liquidity. The US dollar index (DXY) slid from 100.25 on August 1 to 97.78 by month end, pressured by weak volumes, payroll revisions, and Trump’s tariffs. Fed rate-cut fever, coupled with blockbuster earnings, pushed the S&P 500 to fresh records. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline morphed into an August 1 start, and throughout the month, global leaders tripped over themselves to appease Trump’s demands of “what amounts to a cover charge for access to US markets.” The European Union (EU) headlined the list of nations that included Japan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary June turned out to be more bark than bite. Markets braced for tariff fallout, Fed pivot signals, and a growth scare—but what they got was a sideways drift and more questions than answers. Trump’s April tariff barrage still casts a long shadow, but foreign retaliation has been conspicuously restrained—so far. Gold, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May turned out to be more bark than bite. Markets braced for tariff fallout, Fed pivot signals, and a growth scare—but what they got was a sideways drift and more questions than answers. Trump’s April tariff barrage still casts a long shadow, but foreign retaliation has been conspicuously restrained—so far. Gold, […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April delivered another body blow to global markets. President Trump’s April 2 announcement of a 10% tariff on imports from 60 countries caught many off guard, even those accustomed to his unpredictability. The move erased any lingering optimism for a soft landing and raised fresh concerns about global trade stability. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Trump’s trade tirade scorched the earth in March—his tariffs sparked retaliatory threats from China, a diplomatic cold front with Mexico, and Canada. Trump nailed Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on March 4, and he promised to add auto tariffs on April 2, which he called “Liberation Day.” His remarks fueled […]
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