Economic Outlook and Summary Trump’s rhetoric took center stage. His determination to slap tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China while promising reciprocal tariffs on all countries exporting to America sparked fresh worries about trade disruptions and recessions. The U.S. Dollar Index chopped its way through February, caught between rising inflation fears and shifting Fed rate […]
Economic Outlook and Summary As the month progressed, Trump’s tariff threat level ratcheted higher and then came to a head on January 20, just after he was sworn in as the 47th President. He mused that he was thinking of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China. Those musings became […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The first half of February saw broad-based US dollar demand. A robust nonfarm payrolls report underscored the resilience of the US economy and justified the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. Those results put the spotlight on upcoming inflation data, which was also hotter than expected. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The Federal Open Market Committee donned Santa Claus suits in December and left investors grinning from ear to ear. The risk sentiment bellwether S&P 500 index closed the year with a 24.2% gain, a notable achievement but it paled against the Nasdaq’s 53.8% rally in 2023. The catalyst was the December […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November was a good month for equities and bond bulls, but not so much for the US dollar. The greenback traded steadily until the middle of the month, then fell after US inflation data was sharply weaker than expected. Those results were followed by various Fed officials pushing back against the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary There was a lot going on in July, including US and Canadian holidays at the beginning of the month, and more importantly, the Bank of Canada (BoC), Fed, and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meetings. They all raised rates by 25 bps and claimed that future rate decisions would be […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April had a lot of drama. Fed officials followed up the March rate hike with a mixed message. Some warned of the need for further rate hikes like Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker who said inflation was still too high and he anticipated some additional tightening. Governor Lisa Cook said […]
Economic Outlook and Summary January closed with traders in an optimistic mood. The S&P 500 finished the month with a 6.18% gain and the US dollar dropped across the G-10 spectrum. Analysts and traders were feeling rather smug, believing that their outlook for inflation and US interest rates was more realistic than the Feds hawkish […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November had a hawkish bias after a series of interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England. The Fed’s 75 bp hike was the most important and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference remarks underpinned the US dollar and […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The US dollar ruled in September. Fear of the Fed fueled broad based US dollar demand, sent Wall Street stocks tumbling until the last few days of the month. That’s when the British pound took over the driver’s seat for global market direction. The UK government released a “mini budget” that […]
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