Economic Outlook and Summary The first half of February saw broad-based US dollar demand. A robust nonfarm payrolls report underscored the resilience of the US economy and justified the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. Those results put the spotlight on upcoming inflation data, which was also hotter than expected. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary January was a very choppy month. Equity traders embraced the notion of sharply lower US interest rates in 2024 and drove the S&P 500 index to a record high. The idea of 150 bps in easing before the end of the year had equity bulls salivating. They weren’t deterred by a […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The Federal Open Market Committee donned Santa Claus suits in December and left investors grinning from ear to ear. The risk sentiment bellwether S&P 500 index closed the year with a 24.2% gain, a notable achievement but it paled against the Nasdaq’s 53.8% rally in 2023. The catalyst was the December […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November was a good month for equities and bond bulls, but not so much for the US dollar. The greenback traded steadily until the middle of the month, then fell after US inflation data was sharply weaker than expected. Those results were followed by various Fed officials pushing back against the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary October markets were erratic, and fittingly, that’s how they finished the month. The US dollar index (DXY) consolidated the gains from August and September in a choppy 105.11-107.05 range. The S&P 500 was down 5.0% at one point but managed to claw back many of those losses, yet still finished down […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Global markets were feeling frisky in the first half of September as Chinese authorities made another attempt at stimulating economic growth by cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) for all banks by 0.25%. This news was followed by higher than expected industrial production and retail sales. The European Central Bank delivered […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The Fed raised rates at the end of July and claimed that future monetary policy decisions would be data-dependent. The key US economic indicators released in August reflected a robust domestic economy that was demonstrating resilience in the face of Fed rate hikes. The labor market showed signs of cooling but […]
Economic Outlook and Summary There was a lot going on in July, including US and Canadian holidays at the beginning of the month, and more importantly, the Bank of Canada (BoC), Fed, and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meetings. They all raised rates by 25 bps and claimed that future rate decisions would be […]
Economic Outlook and Summary June, saw divergent economic outlooks. Initially, the US dollar was under pressure as many believed the Federal Reserve had completed its last rate hike for this cycle. However, this perception changed following the release of robust US economic data and hawkish projections in the FOMC dot-plot. Furthermore, China’s economic rebound from […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May began with fresh US regional banking fears more US regional bank shares tumbled and the market believed the Fed would be forced to cut rates sooner and faster than previously expected. Those fears faded quickly and were replaced by the US debt-ceiling crisis. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the […]
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