Economic Outlook and Summary The Fed raised rates at the end of July and claimed that future monetary policy decisions would be data-dependent. The key US economic indicators released in August reflected a robust domestic economy that was demonstrating resilience in the face of Fed rate hikes. The labor market showed signs of cooling but […]
Economic Outlook and Summary There was a lot going on in July, including US and Canadian holidays at the beginning of the month, and more importantly, the Bank of Canada (BoC), Fed, and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meetings. They all raised rates by 25 bps and claimed that future rate decisions would be […]
Economic Outlook and Summary June, saw divergent economic outlooks. Initially, the US dollar was under pressure as many believed the Federal Reserve had completed its last rate hike for this cycle. However, this perception changed following the release of robust US economic data and hawkish projections in the FOMC dot-plot. Furthermore, China’s economic rebound from […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May began with fresh US regional banking fears more US regional bank shares tumbled and the market believed the Fed would be forced to cut rates sooner and faster than previously expected. Those fears faded quickly and were replaced by the US debt-ceiling crisis. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April had a lot of drama. Fed officials followed up the March rate hike with a mixed message. Some warned of the need for further rate hikes like Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker who said inflation was still too high and he anticipated some additional tightening. Governor Lisa Cook said […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Traders were very skittish in March. They went from sheer panic at the prospect of a major US banking crisis to feeling relief in anticipation of Fed interest rates cuts by the summer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was at his hawkish best when he testified before Congress and said, “the latest […]
Economic Outlook and Summary February was a good month for US dollar bulls and stock market bears. Global risk sentiment soured with escalating geopolitical tensions after China was caught floating spy balloons in US and Canadian airspace. Russian President Vladimir Putin made veiled threats of a nuclear option is available to counter NATO’s arming Ukraine […]
Economic Outlook and Summary January closed with traders in an optimistic mood. The S&P 500 finished the month with a 6.18% gain and the US dollar dropped across the G-10 spectrum. Analysts and traders were feeling rather smug, believing that their outlook for inflation and US interest rates was more realistic than the Feds hawkish […]
Economic Outlook and Summary It is a brand-new year, but the market will be dealing with the same old themes in the early part of 2023. The debate about when and where US interest rates will peak will continue with every inflation data-point, which in turn will drive equity market direction. Analysts are undecided about […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November had a hawkish bias after a series of interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England. The Fed’s 75 bp hike was the most important and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference remarks underpinned the US dollar and […]
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