Economic Outlook and Summary April had a lot of drama. Fed officials followed up the March rate hike with a mixed message. Some warned of the need for further rate hikes like Philadelphia Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker who said inflation was still too high and he anticipated some additional tightening. Governor Lisa Cook said […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Traders were very skittish in March. They went from sheer panic at the prospect of a major US banking crisis to feeling relief in anticipation of Fed interest rates cuts by the summer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was at his hawkish best when he testified before Congress and said, “the latest […]
Economic Outlook and Summary February was a good month for US dollar bulls and stock market bears. Global risk sentiment soured with escalating geopolitical tensions after China was caught floating spy balloons in US and Canadian airspace. Russian President Vladimir Putin made veiled threats of a nuclear option is available to counter NATO’s arming Ukraine […]
Economic Outlook and Summary January closed with traders in an optimistic mood. The S&P 500 finished the month with a 6.18% gain and the US dollar dropped across the G-10 spectrum. Analysts and traders were feeling rather smug, believing that their outlook for inflation and US interest rates was more realistic than the Feds hawkish […]
Economic Outlook and Summary It is a brand-new year, but the market will be dealing with the same old themes in the early part of 2023. The debate about when and where US interest rates will peak will continue with every inflation data-point, which in turn will drive equity market direction. Analysts are undecided about […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November had a hawkish bias after a series of interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England. The Fed’s 75 bp hike was the most important and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference remarks underpinned the US dollar and […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Global markets were unsettled throughout October, as traders dealt with escalating tensions between the West and Russia, UK political and budget turmoil, Bank of Japan intervention, and concerns about China following Xi Jinping extending his term for five years. The fall-out from the UK mini-budget of September 23, rippled through global […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The US dollar ruled in September. Fear of the Fed fueled broad based US dollar demand, sent Wall Street stocks tumbling until the last few days of the month. That’s when the British pound took over the driver’s seat for global market direction. The UK government released a “mini budget” that […]
Economic Outlook and Summary August ended on a negative risk sentiment note. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish interest rate outlook at the August 26 Jackson Hole Symposium, which buried all hopes of an early pivot. Subsequent comments by other policymakers suggested the fed funds rate would be above 4.0% for all 2023. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary July ended with the Wall Street staging an impressive performance. The Nasdaq finished with an 11.7% gain, while the S&P 500 Index rose 7.97%., despite the Fed matching June’s rate increase with another 75 basis point hike on July 27. The Fed’s rate hike was puny compared to the Bank of […]
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