Economic Outlook and Summary January closed with traders in an optimistic mood. The S&P 500 finished the month with a 6.18% gain and the US dollar dropped across the G-10 spectrum. Analysts and traders were feeling rather smug, believing that their outlook for inflation and US interest rates was more realistic than the Feds hawkish […]
Economic Outlook and Summary It is a brand-new year, but the market will be dealing with the same old themes in the early part of 2023. The debate about when and where US interest rates will peak will continue with every inflation data-point, which in turn will drive equity market direction. Analysts are undecided about […]
Economic Outlook and Summary November had a hawkish bias after a series of interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England. The Fed’s 75 bp hike was the most important and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference remarks underpinned the US dollar and […]
Economic Outlook and Summary Global markets were unsettled throughout October, as traders dealt with escalating tensions between the West and Russia, UK political and budget turmoil, Bank of Japan intervention, and concerns about China following Xi Jinping extending his term for five years. The fall-out from the UK mini-budget of September 23, rippled through global […]
Economic Outlook and Summary The US dollar ruled in September. Fear of the Fed fueled broad based US dollar demand, sent Wall Street stocks tumbling until the last few days of the month. That’s when the British pound took over the driver’s seat for global market direction. The UK government released a “mini budget” that […]
Economic Outlook and Summary August ended on a negative risk sentiment note. Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish interest rate outlook at the August 26 Jackson Hole Symposium, which buried all hopes of an early pivot. Subsequent comments by other policymakers suggested the fed funds rate would be above 4.0% for all 2023. The […]
Economic Outlook and Summary July ended with the Wall Street staging an impressive performance. The Nasdaq finished with an 11.7% gain, while the S&P 500 Index rose 7.97%., despite the Fed matching June’s rate increase with another 75 basis point hike on July 27. The Fed’s rate hike was puny compared to the Bank of […]
Economic Outlook and Summary June started calmly and ended in a panic. US inflation surged to 8.6%, well above the 8.3% forecast, and stocks plunged. The month ended with the S&P 500 index having its worst first half since 1970. FX markets were volatile, with traders reacting to inflation data, central bank monetary policy, equity […]
Economic Outlook and Summary May was a choppy month for markets. Ultimately, the fear that US interest rates would rise aggressively, which fueled broad US dollar gains in the first week, gave way to hopes that the Fed would successfully engineer an economic “soft-landing. The US dollar ended the month with losses against the G-10 […]
Economic Outlook and Summary April ended with the US dollar on solid footing. The greenback climbed steadily during the month, underpinned by a rash of Fed policymakers discussing the need for higher interest rates to fend off rising inflation, which jumped to 8.5% y/y in March. The greenback received an additional boost when St Louis […]
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