Canadian Dollar Update, August 8, 2022 – Canadian Dollar Under Pressure
USD/CAD Open: 1.2903-07, Overnight Range: 1.2891-1.2948, Previous Close: 1.2937
WTI Oil open at $88.15 and gold open at $1,777.58. US markets are mixed today.
For today, USD resistance is at 1.2872. Support is at 1.2837
- Loonie sinking under weight of weak Canadian jobs and falling oil prices
- China’s Exports rise, boosting trade surplus
- US dollar hangs on to post NFP gains
The Canadian dollar was soundly thrashed after the Canadian and US employment data was released.
The Canadian results were not pretty. The Canadian results were below expectations for the second month in a row. Canada lost 30,600 jobs in July compared to the consensus forecast for a 20,000 gain.
The bad news was exacerbated by the massive outperformance in US nonfarm payrolls. NFP surged by 528,000 jobs, more than double the 250,000 gain predicted, and those results lit a fire under the US dollar and Treasury yields.
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged from 2.69% to 2.864% as traders determined that the NFP results gave the Fed a green light to hike aggressively in September. Typically, the steep jump in Treasury yields would have crushed equities, and that was true this time as well. However, the move didn’t last as traders decided that the strong employment report and falling oil prices sharply downgraded the risk of a US recession.
Wall Street closed flat to slightly higher.
The Canadian dollar reacted poorly to the contrasting jobs data and drop in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate peaked at $122.70/barrel on June 14 and has declined steadily to test major technical support in the $86.00 area. Prices are weighed down by reduced fears of a US recession, supported by Chinese trade data showing exports surged 18% in June. Traders are also hoping for a positive result in the US-Iran nuclear talks, which, if successful, would lead to a jump in daily crude production.
USDCAD soared from 1.2880 to 1.2982 in the minutes after the employment reports and then consolidated those losses in a 1.2891-1.2948 range overnight.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0160-1.0214 range with the topside capped by weaker than expected Sentix investor confidence.
GBPUSD is trading sideways in a 1.2049-1.2122 band. The outlook is bearish due to a mix of political uncertainty, recession fears, and the lingering fallout from Brexit.
USDJPY see-sawed in a 134.92-135.97 range with prices underpinned by the jump in US Treasury yields.
However, gains continue to be capped by demand for yen as traders unwind bullish USDJPY positions.
AUDUSD got a boost from better than expected Chinese trade data and rose from 0.6900 to 0.6970. NZDUSD climbed to 0.6286 from 0.6232.
There are no US or Canadian economic reports today.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.2810 – 1.2910