What are Canada's seven big banks forecasting for the Canadian dollar?

What do the seven banks forecast for USD/CAD in 2026 and 2027?

USD/CAD forecasts by bank (CAD per USD)

How accurate were last year's Canadian dollar forecasts?

End-2025 forecasts on the public record vs the actual rate

Should you wait for a better rate before you convert?

This is the question I am asked most, and my answer has not changed since 2009. If the banks that employ hundreds of economists disagree by eight cents about the next three months, nobody can tell you the right day to convert. What you can control is how much rate risk you carry.

Your money has a deadline. If your money has a deadline, such as a property closing, a tuition date or a supplier invoice, work back from that date. Convert part now and part closer to the date, so one bad week cannot cost you the whole difference. You can check today's USD to CAD rate before you decide how to split it.

No deadline. If there is no deadline, decide the rate you would be happy with, set a rate alert, and stop watching the screen.

The people who lose the most are usually the ones who waited for a number that never came and then converted in a hurry.

What do the banks forecast for the euro, pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars against the Canadian dollar?

Not every bank publishes every pair, so each table below names only the banks that do. No bank publishes NZD/CAD; it is computed from each bank's NZD/USD and USD/CAD calls.

EUR/CAD. Most banks see EUR/CAD between 1.58 and 1.64 through 2027. RBC is the outlier, sliding to 1.49 by late 2027, while TD and Scotiabank hold the euro above 1.60 throughout. For the euro in more detail, see our euro to Canadian dollar forecast.

Why have the banks moved their Canadian dollar forecasts?

Every bank in the second track record table has raised its end-2026 USD/CAD call since it first made it. Each gives its own reasons in its own document, and they point in the same direction.

• RBC Capital Markets ties its higher path to the gap between US and Canadian interest rates, which keeps US dollar hedging expensive for Canadian investors, and to steady flows into US assets. It expects the gap to narrow only when the Bank of Canada starts raising rates in 2027.
• National Bank points to the breakdown in Canada-US trade talks and the new tariffs, which it says raise the risk to Canadian growth and could push USD/CAD back toward 1.40 before the loonie resumes its climb.
• Scotiabank has moved its year-end call to 1.37 from 1.33 in November 2025, still the lowest in the table alongside National Bank. Its September outlook cites a more hawkish Bank of Canada, narrower yield spreads and positioning that has shifted in the Canadian dollar's favour as the reasons it expects the loonie to recover from here.
• Desjardins says the old trading ranges broke on hawkish Federal Reserve communication and foreign buying of US stocks, and that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to match the Fed, so it moved its 2026 range to 1.40 to 1.45.
• BMO has lifted its end-2026 call from 1.34 in March to 1.38 in its August edition. It says US trade policy uncertainty, and to a lesser extent Canada's better core inflation, make the Bank of Canada less likely than the Federal Reserve to tighten in the short term, and it expects the loonie to improve once that uncertainty ebbs and Fed rate cuts come back into view.
• CIBC ties the loonie's weakness to the Federal Reserve raising rates while the Bank of Canada holds, which widens the rate gap, and to the economic slack opened up by trade tensions with the US. It expects the Canadian dollar to do better in 2027 if a trade deal rolls back the new tariffs, with USD/CAD reaching 1.37 by mid-2027.

Put together, the moves come down to one thing: the US rate advantage lasted longer than the banks expected at the start of 2025. That is also why the disagreement now is about when the gap closes, not whether it does.

How does this page get built?

Each month we read the published currency outlook from RBC, TD, Scotiabank, BMO, CIBC, National Bank and Desjardins. We record the quarter-end forecasts exactly as printed, link the document, and note its date. We source actual exchange rates from the Bank of Canada. The page is updated within three business days of the last bank's release, and the "Last updated" line at the top tells you which month you are reading. Where a bank stops short of the horizon, we use its stated target or carry its last figure and label the cell. I read the commentary before it goes live, and nothing on this page recommends buying or selling any currency.

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