Canadian Dollar Update, August 18, 2022 – Canadian Dollar Trading Uninspired
USD/CAD Open: 1.2887-91, Overnight Range: 1.2904-1.2945, Previous Close: 1.2915
WTI Oil open at $89.19 and gold open at $1,769.12. US markets are lower today.
For today, USD resistance is at 1.2941. Support is at 1.2904.
- FOMC minutes do not offer any fresh insight
- EU inflation jumps to 9.8% y/y from 9.6% in June
- Commodity currencies slump as US dollar firms
The Canadian dollar is directionless inside a USDCAD band of 1.2850-1.2950. The narrow range is exacerbated by poor liquidity from summer-thinned markets. Domestic data is ignored as traders are focused on US economics and the Fed’s outlook.
The FOMC minutes from the July 27 meeting were released yesterday afternoon. They weren’t very helpful. The minutes suggested US rates would continue to rise, but then things got muddled. A few analysts thought the minutes were bullish because some participants said rates needed to reach a sufficiently restrictive level to control inflation and stay there for some time. Other analysts thought the minutes suggest rates would peak earlier than expected.
Regardless, the minutes were very out of date as the meeting occurred before the last employment and inflation reports.
Wall Street closed with losses, and the major Asian equity indexes followed suit. European bourses and S&P 500 equity futures are posting gains ahead of this morning’s US data, which includes weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Existing Home Sales.
Norway’s Norges Bank hiked rates by 50 bps to 1.75%. That may be a precursor to a similar move by the European Central Bank (ECB) in September. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel thinks so. She said, “In July, we decided to raise rates by 50 basis points because we were concerned about the inflation outlook. The concerns we had in July have not been alleviated… I do not think this outlook has changed fundamentally.”
EURUSD climbed in 1.0147-1.0192 band, garnering some support from Eurozone inflation data. European Union inflation was 9.8% in July 2022, up from 9.6% in June.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.1996-1.2078 range due to US dollar selling pressure in the European session. Fears of a recession offset GBPUSD support from expectations of higher domestic interest rates.
USDJPY rallied to 135.42 from 134.74 but reversed the gain in early NY trading after the 10-year US Treasury yield retreated to 2.86% from 2.89%…
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6901-0.6969 range, with prices weighed down by a weaker than expected employment report. Australia lost 40,900 jobs compared to the forecast for a gain of 25,000.
NZDUSD bounced in a 0.6250-0.6295 range and mirrored AUDUSD price action.
Today’s Canadian data includes Raw Materials Price Index and Industrial Product Price.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.2840 – 1.2940