Canadian Dollar Update, August 4, 2022 – Canadian Dollar Making a Charge
USD/CAD Open: 1.2831-35, Overnight Range: 1.2820-1.2854, Previous Close: 1.2841
WTI Oil open at $91.51 and gold open at $1,780.05. US markets are mixed today.
For today, USD resistance is at 1.2879. Support is at 1.2835.
- China’s belligerence ignored and stock markets rise
- Bank of England hikes rates by 50 bps, as expected
- US dollar opens with losses, NZD outperforms
The Canadian dollar is charging higher on the back of rising stock prices and ignoring relatively weak oil prices, albeit in a thin summer market.
The Canadian dollar benefits from broad US dollar selling pressures stemming from a rebound in global equity markets. Asia equity indexes closed on a mixed note, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.69% while Australia’s ASX 200 index was unchanged.
European bourses are following the lead of the German Dax index, which gained 1.27%. The UK FTSE 100 is still positive even after the Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points. S&P 500 and DJIA futures point to a positive open on Wall Street, helped by the soft 10-year Treasury yield of 2.72%.
The Canadian dollar remains firm despite West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil falling to $90.18/b from a peak of $96.50/b yesterday. Crude is under pressure due to fears of lower demand from rising US inflation and the subsequent interest rate hikes, combined with ongoing supply chain disruptions and slowing growth in China.
Opec raised production by 100,000 barrels per day, which pundits quickly dismissed as meaningless, leaving traders to fret over demand concerns.
China’s Xi Jinping continues to have a temper tantrum to rival that of any unhappy two-year-old. The emperor wannabe is attempting to intimidate Taiwan by surrounding the island with warships and having a live-fire drill. He avoided such action when the US Navy was in the area, protecting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Nevertheless, world leaders are hesitant to criticize China in case it hurts their trade relationship. Case in point-Australia. Late last year, China banned Australian coal due to a political dispute but recently reconsidered when the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted crude oil and other commodity shipments. As a result, Australia posted another large trade surplus ($17.7 billion) due to increased coal shipments to China.
The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy meeting highlights the European session. The BoE hiked rates by 50 bps. Policymakers also warned that the country would enter a recession as inflation levels surge above 13%. GBPUSD dropped from its overnight top of 1.2214 to 1.2085.
Canada Trade data and US weekly jobless claims are on tap.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.2800 – 1.2900