Canadian Dollar Update, June 25, 2020 – Canadian Dollar dives
USD/CAD Open: 1.3610-14, Overnight Range: 1.3607-1.3666
WTI Oil is at $38.27 and gold is at $1,770.00. US markets are higher today.
For today, USD resistance is at 1.3687. Support is at 1.3615.
• Canada loses AAA credit rating
• IMF downgrades global growth outlook, again
• Rising US coronavirus cases spur shift to risk-aversion
The Canadian dollar plunged overnight. It had a lot of company. A surge in the number of new COVID-19 cases in US states, many of which, eased lockdown restrictions early, led to fears of a second-wave pandemic. The US reported 38,173 new infections on Wednesday, a number that surpassed the worst day totals at the height of the outbreak in April.
The surge in COVID-19 cases spooked Wall Street, and traders headed for the exits. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.72% yesterday, and S&P 500 futures are pointing to more losses today. Today’s US weekly jobless claims data may add to concerns that the US economy is at risk. The forecast is for claims to rise 1.3 million. US Q1 GDP is forecast to increase just 1.4%, while May Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound from -17.7% in April to 10.6%. Weaker than expected data suggesting the US economy is slowing may spark renewed equity market selling, and spark another bout of risk aversion demand for US dollars.
Fitch Ratings Inc cut Canada’s AAA Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable. They blamed the deterioration in Canada’s public finances due to the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch is also predicting a severe recession in 2020 with a drop in GDP of 7.1%. The news was eclipsed by the bout of risk aversion sentiment but will serve to limit Canadian dollar gains in the future.
The Canadian dollar was undermined further by falling crude oil prices. Oil traders are concerned that a renewed global slowdown, and higher US crude inventories will more than offset the latest OPEC production cuts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its global growth outlook again. The IMF now expects the global economy to shrink by 4.9% in 2020. They forecast Canada’s 2020 GDP growth at -8.4%.
The US dollar extended yesterday’s gains overnight and is trading on a firm note in Toronto ahead of this morning’s US data dump.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3560 – 1.3660
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By KBFX | June 25, 2020 | Daily Update | 0 comments