Canadian Dollar Update October 7, 2019 – Canadian Dollar mildly risk adverse
USD/CAD Open: 1.3323-1.3324 Overnight Range: 1.3290-1.3330
Oil is at $53.64 and gold is at $1,507.80. US markets are lower today.
The short-term USD/CAD technicals are neutral-bearish. For today, USD resistance is at 1.3317. Support is at 1.3283.
The Canadian dollar is suffering from a mild dose of risk aversion, which it caught from the other commodity bloc currencies.
AUDUSD and NZDUSD were under pressure overnight, in part, because of low expectations for this week’s China/US trade talks. Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials are signaling a reluctance to agree on a broad trade deal. China does not want to include reforming its industrial policy or government subsidies in these negotiations. Skeptics see the change in China’s strategy as a not-so-subtle attempt to exploit President Trump’s impeachment headaches. The Canadian dollar mirrored the antipodean price action.
The clock is ticking down to the October 31 Brexit deadline. There are conflicting reports about the European Union’s reception to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Irish border plan. Prices are supported because Mr. Johnson is legally required to ask the EU for an extension to the deadline. EU officials have been told the discussions are going nowhere, and they agreed that the latest UK proposals are not acceptable. Nevertheless, GBPUSD shrugged off data-related weakness and rallied from 1.2289 to 1.2336. GBPCAD demand undermined the Loonie.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0963-1.0989 range. Prices tracked Sterling moves but remained under pressure due to weaker than expected German factory orders data, bearish technicals and a dovish European Central Bank. Traders are biding their time ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, and the start of the US/China trade talks.
USDJPY is weighed down by safe-haven demand for yen and falling US Treasury yields. 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 1.661% on October 2, to 1.512% overnight.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday was ambiguous at best. He described the US economy as “being in a good place.” Then he hedged himself, saying: “While we believe our strategy and tools have been and remain effective, the U.S. economy, like other advanced economies around the world, is facing some longer-term challenges—from low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates,” adding the Fed is “examining strategies” that will help it achieve its inflation goal of 2%.” His remarks followed Friday’s US employment report. Nonfarm payrolls were slightly worse than expected but that was enough for traders to raise the odds for a US rate cut on October 30 to 100%. The Canadian dollar continues to track broad US dollar moves against the major G-10 currencies with the impact of domestic data not having a lasting impact on intraday price action. The domestic and US economic calendars are empty today.
Today’s Suggested Range USD/CAD: 1.3270 – 1.3370
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